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Bayesian sports forecasts
Every game is a
belief, updated.
Bayesian team ratings and league-tuned forecasting models, distilled into calibrated win probabilities, spreads, and totals for every game. Ratings refresh every morning; Kalshi prices refresh through the day.
94 teams rated · 29,976 games learned · snapshots archived daily
The Slate — NFL, Mon Oct 12
snapshot 2026-10-12 · 1 game · ratings
Kalshi price · as of 7:40 AM CT
bayesRatings
home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT
StartMatchupWin probability
SpreadTotalMoneyline
MON 7:15P
NFL
NFL
BUFBuffalo Bills50.5%
LARLos Angeles Rams49.5%
BUF −0.6
48.2
BUF −102LAR +102
The Slate — MLB, Mon Oct 12
snapshot 2026-10-12 · 2 games · ratings
Kalshi price · as of 7:40 AM CT
bayesRatings
home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT
StartMatchupWin probability
SpreadTotalMoneyline
MON 4:00P
MLB
MLB
LADLos Angeles Dodgers46.1%
MILMilwaukee Brewers53.9%
MIL −0.1
8.5
MIL −117LAD +117
MON 7:00P
MLB
MLB
CLECleveland Guardians43.2%
TBTampa Bay Rays56.8%
TB −0.4
8.2
TB −131CLE +131
The Slate — NHL, Mon Oct 12
snapshot 2026-10-12 · 3 games · ratings
Kalshi price · as of 7:40 AM CT
bayesRatings
home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT
StartMatchupWin probability
SpreadTotalMoneyline
MON 12:00P
NHL
NHL
FLAFlorida Panthers50.7%
BUFBuffalo Sabres49.3%
BUF +0.0
5.2
FLA −103BUF +103
MON 6:00P
NHL
NHL
OTTOttawa Senators51.3%
NJNew Jersey Devils48.7%
OTT −0.1
5.8
OTT −105NJ +105
MON 7:00P
NHL
NHL
VGKVegas Golden Knights43.7%
MINMinnesota Wild56.3%
MIN −0.3
5.5
MIN −129VGK +129